INCOME INEQUALITY:
HOW CENSUS DATA MISREPRESENT
INCOME DISTRIBUTION
ROBERT RECTOR AND REA HEDERMAN 1
Published by
The Heritage Foundation
214 Massachusetts Ave., N.E.
Washington, D.C.
20002-4999
(202) 546-4400
http://www.heritage.org
- Today, the standard of living for the average American is nearly seven times higher than it was 100 years ago, after adjusting for inflation. 2
- minimum wage-earners comprise the lowest-paid 2 percent of all employees; today's minimum wage worker earns more, in real terms, in a single day than a low-skilled worker earned in an entire six-day workweek at the turn of the century. In other words, today's minimum wage worker earns more in eight hours than a low-skilled worker earned in 70 or more hours a century ago. 3
- Since its initiation in the mid-1960s, U.S. taxpayers have spent $7.9 trillion on federal welfare programs, often with lamentable social side effects.
According to the official Census Bureau distribution of income by quintile for 1997, 3.6 percent of total income went to the lowest quintile, while the top quintile received 49.4 percent. But the Census data have 4 flaws:
The conventional Census income figures are omit many types of cash and non-cash income.
The conventional Census figures do not take into account the equalizing effects of taxation.
The Census quintiles actually contain unequal numbers of persons, a fact that greatly magnifies the apparent level of economic inequality.
Differences in work effort are not acknowledged in Census publications.
Adding a More Complete Count of Income and Taxes. The conventional money income figures presented in exclude many types of income and compensation received by families and individuals, as well as the effects of taxes in reducing income. Stage 2 corrects for these omissions by making the following adjustments.
- The value of realized capital gains is added to income. 7
- The value of welfare benefits such as food stamps, public housing, the school lunch program, and the earned income tax credit are added, 8 as are the value of employee health benefits and the insurance values of Medicaid and Medicare benefits. 9
- Federal income taxes, property taxes, state income taxes, and Social Security payroll taxes are then subtracted from family income.
In each case, the value of the benefits or income added and taxes subtracted for each family has been taken directly from the CPS. 10 (The Census Bureau collects these data but does not incorporate them into its official money income totals.)
We label family income adjusted in the manner we describe above as "comprehensive post-tax income." The effects on income distribution figures that result from replacing official money income (Stage 1) with comprehensive post-tax income (Stage 2) are shown in Chart 2. The share of total income received by the bottom quintile rises from 3.6 percent to 5.6 percent. The share of the top quintile falls from 49.4 percent to 45.3 percent.
STAGE 3: Adjusting Quintiles to Contain Equal Numbers of Persons. The top Census "quintile" contains not 20 percent of the population but 24.3 percent, while the bottom quintile contains only 14.8 percent of the population. The top quintile has 65 percent more persons than does the bottom quintile.
- individuals are not treated equally in the current Census methods; in general, individuals in married couple families are underrepresented by the Census data and treated as less significant than single persons or people in single-parent families.
- The share of income of the adjusted bottom quintile rises to 9.4 percent, while the income of the top quintile falls to 39.7 percent. The adjustment of the underreporting of income received by the lowest quintile of the population is particularly important.
- With 9.4 percent of total income, the actual share of income for this quintile is nearly three times higher than the conventional Census figures show.
STAGE 4: Explaining the Remaining Variance--Hypothetical Equalization of Work Performed. There remains an enormous difference in the amount of work performed within each corrected quintile. The annual number of hours of employed labor in the top quintile is still nearly twice that in the bottom quintile. This imbalance in work certainly can be expected to contribute to an imbalance in income.
The hypothetical distribution of income that would occur if working age adults in each quintile performed the same average number of hours of annual paid labor. 15 The share of income for the bottom quintile rises from 9.4 percent to 12 percent, while the share of the top quintile falls from 39.7 percent to 36.7 percent.
But even this lower ratio continues to reflect the fact that the Census data's top "quintile" is seriously overpopulated, while the bottom is underpopulated. Once the quintiles are adjusted to contain equal numbers of persons, the ratio of incomes of the top to the bottom quintile drops to $4.23 to $1.00 (as shown in Chart 4). Moreover, even this difference is due in large part to the fact that working age adults in the top quintile work twice as many hours as those in the bottom. If such adults worked the same number of hours, the income ratio would fall to around $3.07 to $1.00.
Comparison of the Top and Bottom Halves
- under Census procedures, the top "half" contains not 50 percent of the population but 57.8 percent.
- The Census Bureau's top "half" contains 63 percent of working age adults who, in turn, perform 71 percent of the paid labor in the economy.
- With a more accurate count of post-tax incomes and an adjustment so that the top half contains 50 percent of the population, the annual income received by the top half falls to $3.2 trillion while the share of the bottom half rises to $1.4 trillion. Thus, the conventional Census figures overrepresent the income available to the more affluent half of society by nearly $1 trillion. The share of total income received by the top half falls from 81 percent to 70 percent.
The Census Bureau represents the top half of society receiving $4.24 in income for every $1.00 received by the bottom half.
- In reality, the correct figure is $2.28 for every $1.00. The real level of inequality in the economy is effectively half that represented by the conventional Census figures.
- The more affluent half of the population still provides 59.5 percent of the hours of work in the overall economy.
- The top half contains the bulk of the most skilled and productive laborers and provides most of the vital investment in plant equipment, which is necessary to sustain the prosperity of all Americans.
- the 70 percent share of post-tax income going to the most affluent half of society seems remarkably low; it is striking evidence of the high degree of income equalization already occurring in American society.
While the middle quintile does contain roughly one-fifth of the population, the others do not. The high disparity in population between the highest-income and lowest-income quintiles is of particular interest.
- While the top quintile contains 24.3 percent (64.2 million people) of the population, the bottom quintile contains only 14.8 percent (39.2 million).
- For every person in the lowest quintile, there are 1.64 persons in the top. This imbalance in population is a major factor contributing to the apparent levels of inequality in Census Bureau figures.
The Census Bureau quintiles are unequal in size because they are based on a count of households rather than persons. A household is defined as a person or group of persons living in a single housing unit. In the United States, high-income households tend to be married couples with many members and earners. Low-income households tend to be single persons with little or no earnings. It should be no surprise, then, that the average household in the Census Bureau's top quintile contains 3.1 persons, while the average household in the bottom quintile contains 1.9 people. Overall, 54.9 percent of the households in the bottom quintile have only one person compared with 7 percent in the top quintile.
Although the disparity in the population sizes of the Census quintiles is striking, an analysis of the types of individuals in each quintile reveals even greater disparity. Chart 8 shows the number of people in each official quintile divided into age categories: children (under 18), elderly (over age 64), and working age adults (ages 18 to 64). The elderly comprise about one-tenth of the total population. Elderly persons are generally retired and thus tend to have lower incomes than families headed by working adults. It should be no surprise, then, that the lowest three official quintiles contain the bulk of elderly persons. Children, by contrast, are more abundant in the higher-income quintiles. For example, the top two quintiles contain some 34 million children, compared with 24 million in the bottom two quintiles.
The greatest differences occur among working age adults. The highest official quintile has 2.4 working age adults for each such adult in the bottom quintile. In fact, the 44.1 million working age adults in the top quintile by themselves outnumber the entire population (adults, elderly, and children combined) of the bottom quintile. The number of working age adults in the top quintile alone is greater than the number of such adults in the lower two quintiles combined.
Rich and Poor, Married and Unmarried. One frequently overlooked dimension of the gap between the "rich" and the "poor" is how much it is affected by marital status. 20
- Only about 30 percent of all persons in Census's bottom quintile live in married couple families;
- In the top quintile, 90 percent of persons live in married couple families.
- even after each quintile is adjusted to contain the same number of persons, 85 percent of persons in the top quintile continue to live in married couple families compared with one-third in the bottom.
Education:
- The average education level of working age householders in the top quintile is four years greater than those in the bottom quintile.
- Thus, income inequality in the United States is intensified by the fact that more highly skilled and more productive workers tend to work more while low skilled workers work less.
"Differences in income in the United States are the natural result of vast differences in ability and behavior between individuals. In general, those persons at high income levels tend to be married, to work large numbers of hours per year, to have high levels of skill and productivity, and to provide higher levels of savings and investment necessary to sustain the overall prosperity of the economy. By contrast, individuals in the lowest income quintile tend generally to be non-married, to work little, and to have lower levels of skill and productivity.
"Despite these factors, the average per capita income within the bottom quintile remains over $8,000 per year, which is slightly higher, in inflation-adjusted terms, than the average per capita income in the whole society at the beginning of World War II.
--Robert Rector is Senior Research Fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Rea Hederman is a Policy Analyst in the Center for Data Analysis at The Heritage Foundation.
Endnotes
1. David Mulhausen provided valuable assistance in the preparation of this report.
2. Per capita GNP in 1900 was $246. See U.S. Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970, Part 1 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1975), Series F1-5, p. 224. Prices adjusted by the Consumer Price Index (CPI-UX1). See Historical Statistics of the United States, Series E 135, pp. 210, 211, and The Economic Report of the President (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, February 1999), Table B-62, p. 398.
3. Jacob Riis, writing around 1890, described low-skilled workers earning $1.75 for a six-day week. After adjusting for inflation, this comes today to about $31.50 per week, or $5.25 per day; the typical workday would have been at least 12 hours. Minimum wage workers today earn $5.15 per hour, or $41.20 for an eight-hour day. See Jacob A. Riis, How the Other Half Lives (New York: Dover, 1971), p. 184. How the Other Half Lives was first published in 1890.
4. Nicholas Lehman, The Promised Land: The Great Migration and How It Changed America (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1991), p. 131.
5. The authors used data from the Current Population Survey, March 1998, Annual Demographic File, CD-ROM version.
6. The Census Bureau does publish income distribution data based on expanded definitions of income in technical tables in some publications; however, these tables, which offer 17 alternative definitions of income, are bewildering even to professionals in the field. In its texts describing inequality, and in the briefing materials given to the media, the Census Bureau continues to promote the conventional figures shown in Stage 1 of this report.
7. For information on adjustments made to compensate for the top coding of capital gains, see the Methodological Appendix.
8. The values of school lunch and public housing subsidies represent the net government expenditure or subsidy to the individual.
9. The insurance value of Medicaid and Medicare (also called the market value) equals the average net government outlay for persons of a specific risk class within a given state. The risk classes used are elderly, disabled persons, non-disabled adult, and non-disabled child. Under this approach, the value of Medicaid or Medicare equals the average cost to the government of medical services provided to a given class of persons; it does not report specific medical expenditures for particular individuals.
10. However, the top-coded adjustments to capital gains are taken from IRS data, as noted in the Methodological Appendix.
11. The reason for this is that Census counts "households" rather than people, but households in the bottom "quintile" are small and have few people or adult earners in them, while households in the top of the income distribution scale have many more people in them. This is discussed more fully in the section entitled "Detailed Analysis: Population and Income Distribution."
12. To make this adjustment, the rank order of households by income was left unchanged, but the income boundaries of the quintiles were shifted until an equal number of persons fell within each quintile. For example, in order for the bottom quintile to contain 20 percent of the population, the upper-income threshold of the quintile was shifted upward from $18,985 to $23,124. Expanding the income boundary resulted in more persons being included within the quintile.
13. It is important to recognize the difference between the corrections in Stage 2 and Stage 3 and the hypothetical adjustment in Stage 4. Stages 2 and 3 are intended to clarify the real distribution of income in the United States by correcting for omitted income and taxes and the misallocation of population between the quintiles. These corrections provide a clearer picture of the distribution of income as it really exists. By contrast, Stage 4 is intended to demonstrate the effects of the imbalance of work on income distribution. This is accomplished by hypothetical adjustment showing the effects on income within a quintile if work hours were more nearly equalized. This is a hypothetical adjustment only; it shows what the distribution of income would be if work were equalized between quintiles. It does not contend that, in reality, work is so equalized.
14. In Stage 4, we have adjusted only the amount of earnings in each quintile, but we continue to count all of the non-welfare income, including interest, dividends, pensions, and welfare, as before.
15. Even with this labor adjustment, the amount of work performed in the top and bottom quintiles will not be exactly equal since the top quintile (even after the Stage 3 demographic adjustment) still contains 20 percent more working age adults than the bottom quintile.
16. See D. T. Slesnick, "Gaining Ground: Poverty in the Postwar United States," Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 101, No. 1 (1993), pp. 1-38.
17. The undercount of income in the CPS results from both the underreporting of the types of income included in the Census definition of money income and the exclusion of other important sources of income from the money income definition. For a more detailed discussion of CPS underreporting, see Robert Rector, Kirk Johnson, and Sarah Youssef, "The Extent of Material Hardship and Poverty in the United States," Review of Social Economy, September 1999.
18. The "Comprehensive Post-Tax Income" figures of Stage 2 are the same as the Census Bureau's income definition 14, except that Census employs a "fungible method" for valuing Medicaid and Medicare. The fungible method begins with the insurance value of benefits and then arbitrarily reduces the value of benefits received by lower-income persons. This technique, which assigns one value to benefits received by the middle class and a reduced value to the same benefits received by lower-income persons, is obviously inappropriate for the measure of income distribution.
19. It can be argued reasonably that larger multi-person households have certain economies of scale that are not available to single-person or smaller households. It is cheaper for two persons to live together than to live separately. Thus, a married couple living together with an income of $40,000 might be said to have a higher standard of living than two individuals living separately with incomes of $20,000 each. However, the economies of scale of larger households do not justify giving the persons living in such households lower weight or importance in measuring income distribution, as is done with the Census quintile allocation. If the goal is not to measure income per se, but rather to measure the consumer utility derived from income, then making allowance for the economies of scale implicit in larger families is reasonable. The best procedure for doing this would be to adjust family income by an economy of scale factor. This can be done, for example, by dividing the family income by the official poverty income thresholds. (The thresholds are themselves adjusted to take account of economies of scale in large households.) Ranking households by the ratio of comprehensive post-tax income to the appropriate poverty threshold for the family produces distribution of income figures that are considerably more equal than the official Census figures but less equal than the data from Stage 3 of our analysis. The ratio of income in the top to bottom quintiles is $7.31 to $1.00. Additional data on this are available upon request from the authors.
20. For a brief review of new research on marriage and income inequality, see "Poor and Single," The Economist, January 16, 1999.
21. Robert I. Lerman, "The Impact of the Changing US Family Structure on Child Poverty and Income Inequality," Economica, May 1996, pp. S119-S139.
22. U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Money Income in the United States: 1997 (With Separate Data on Valuation of Noncash Benefits)," Current Population Reports, P60-200 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1998), p. 49.